Everything You Own Owns a Piece of You
Tariffs are on. Then off. Then on again. The Bank of Canada has cut rates seven times and the market still feels frozen. Ontario and BC are soft while Halifax and Calgary keep climbing. If you’re confused, you should be — because the people running the show seem confused too.
I sat down with Richard Robbins on the Supply and Demand podcast to talk about what’s actually going on and how to make yourself recession-proof through all of it. Richard co-founded Richard Robbins International — one of Canada’s most respected real estate coaching companies for over 25 years. He coaches agents across Canada and internationally, many doing 600+ transactions a year. He’s built and scaled companies, navigated multiple downturns, and his perspective goes way beyond any single market.
And the thing he kept coming back to wasn’t about market timing or interest rates. It was about not letting the good times trick you into building a life you can’t afford when the good times stop.
The housing shortage hasn’t gone anywhere
Before we get into the recession-proofing stuff, let’s talk about the fundamentals — because I think people are confusing a slow market with a broken one. They’re not the same thing.
“We have a systemic shortage of homes in Canada. We’ve had it for years. That has not gone away. People are still here. Where’d all the people go? Nowhere. And there’s still people coming in because we had high immigration for a number of years.”
— Richard Robbins, Richard Robbins International
So if the demand is still there, why does the GTA feel dead? One word: uncertainty. People are standing on the sidelines waiting to see what economy they’re going to buy in. Trade deals, interest rates, the broader direction — nobody wants to make the biggest financial decision of their life when they can’t even figure out what next quarter looks like.
“Imagine being a manufacturing business right now and trying to make a decision. So what do you do? You stop. You don’t make any decisions… My theory is if we have a shortage of homes, buyers haven’t left the market. They’re just standing on the sidelines waiting to see what economy we’re going to buy in.”
— Richard Robbins
The buyers haven’t disappeared. They’re waiting for clarity. And when even a sliver of certainty returns, Richard thinks the market moves — because the supply-demand imbalance hasn’t resolved. It’s just been masked by fear.
Why Toronto and Vancouver are hurting while everywhere else is fine
This was one of the most interesting parts of our conversation. Ontario and BC are struggling while Halifax, Calgary, and the maritimes are doing just fine — some even seeing price increases. How is that possible?
Volatility exposure.
“Toronto, Vancouver — when they get hot, they get really hot. Prices start going up 15% a year, 20% a year. Well, that’s not happening in the maritimes. That’s not happening in the prairies. So what happens is we have peaks and valleys. They have rolling hills.”
— Richard Robbins
Toronto & Vancouver
Peaks and valleys. 15-20% annual price spikes during hot markets. 60-70% investor exposure in condos. Painful corrections when rates rise and investors flood the market with supply.
Halifax, Calgary, Maritimes
Rolling hills. Moderate, steady growth without the same speculation. Less investor concentration. Stable through downturns — markets that never overheated don’t have as far to fall.
The condo market is the perfect example. An estimated 60-70% of Toronto condos are owned by investors, not people who actually live there. When rates spiked, those investors couldn’t cover carrying costs with rent. Now they’re all trying to sell at the same time, flooding the market with supply that didn’t exist two years ago.
“Think what happens to a market when 60 to 70% of the product are bought by investors, not homeowners. The exposure to volatility is much greater.”
— Richard Robbins
Markets that never spiked as hard don’t have to correct as hard. Pretty basic, right? Toronto and Vancouver front-loaded a ton of activity during COVID and now we’re paying the piper.
How to actually be recession-proof
This is where the conversation shifted from market analysis to something more personal. Richard has been through multiple downturns — in his business, in real estate, in life. His framework is simple, and it’s the kind of thing that sounds obvious until you realize almost nobody actually does it.
Control your overhead. At the peak of his coaching business, Richard had 100 employees, $700,000 a month in payroll, offices in Toronto and San Diego, 13 major events a year. It was a machine that needed constant feeding. He learned the hard way what that costs you when the market turns.
— Richard Robbins
“Everything you own owns a piece of you. You never forget that. You’ve got two cars — well, those two cars own a piece of you. They all need to be fixed, they need to be cleaned, they need to be paid for, you need insurance for two of them… So everything you personally own owns a chunk of you.”
— Richard Robbins
His company now runs with zero debt. And that’s not just a financial strategy — it’s a survival strategy. The people who make it through downturns aren’t necessarily the ones who made the most on the way up. They’re the ones whose overhead was manageable enough to weather the drop.
“When things are really, really good — just wait. That’ll pass. And when things are really, really bad — just wait. That’ll pass. But get yourself in a position that you can be prepared for anything, no matter what happens. You can weather any storm.”
— Richard Robbins
Watch the lifestyle creep. This one hits close to home for anyone in Toronto. When the market was running hot, incomes went up and lifestyle expanded to match. The problem is that lifestyle doesn’t shrink as easily as income does.
“The challenge is people sometimes have created a lifestyle that requires the income they used to have… We’ve got to be very, very careful about our lifestyles. Because it starts to creep up sometimes. And we think it’s going to be like that forever. Guess what? Nothing’s forever.”
— Richard Robbins
This applies to homeowners considering their next purchase as much as it does to business owners. Don’t build your financial life around peak-market income. Build it around what’s sustainable when things aren’t going perfectly. Because things will, at some point, not go perfectly.
Accept that 120% effort gets 80% results right now. One of the most grounding things Richard said. In a down market, you’re going to work harder for less. That’s just the math. The question is whether you can accept that without panicking.
“Probably 120% of effort will only get us 80% of the results right now. And that’s okay. Things aren’t good all the time. And we got to get used to that… You got to make very prudent decisions during these periods of time. You got to look at everything you’re doing, everything you’re spending, and say — is that worthwhile?”
— Richard Robbins
Control overhead: Run lean. Zero debt if possible. The people who survive downturns aren’t the highest earners — they’re the ones with manageable costs.
Watch lifestyle creep: Don’t build your financial life around peak income. Build it around what’s sustainable when things aren’t going perfectly.
Invest in relationships: Over 60% of Richard’s business comes from referrals. Relationships compound in ways money can’t — and they don’t depreciate in a downturn.
That’s the opposite of doom porn. It’s not “the sky is falling.” It’s “this is a normal cycle, and the smart move is to tighten up, get strategic, and position yourself for the next upswing.” I think a lot of people need to hear that right now.
If you’re a buyer, this might be your window
Richard was pretty direct about this. If he were a buyer in the GTA today, he’d be moving.
“If I was a smart buyer, I’d be buying now. I’d be buying in the next few months because I think that could be the best time to buy. Real estate’s on sale right now. It’s time to get in… Five or ten years from now, you’re looking back and people are going to think you’re a genius.”
— Richard Robbins
The logic is straightforward: the housing shortage hasn’t resolved, rates have come down significantly, and the only thing holding the market back is uncertainty. When that clears — even partially — demand returns to a market that still doesn’t have enough supply. The math favours people who move before the crowd figures it out.
He also flagged something that doesn’t get enough attention: the wealth transfer. An estimated 42% of first-time buyers are now getting financial help from boomer parents. The largest wealth transfer in Canadian history is actively happening.
“We have the largest wealth transfer in history taking place right now in Canada. Baby boomers are very flush… That money is already transferring because they say that 42% of people buying their first home are getting a gift from somebody. Baby boomers, probably. It’s becoming trendy to gift people before death.”
— Richard Robbins
That’s a structural tailwind for housing that persists regardless of interest rates or trade drama. Capital is flowing from the generation that accumulated it to the generation that needs it most — and a big chunk of it is going directly into real estate.
Relationships are the ultimate recession-proof asset
If there’s a through-line to everything Richard teaches, it’s this. Not market analysis. Not financial strategy. Relationships.
His business partner Dana Rashard has been with him for nearly 40 years. His longest friendships go back 40+ years. Over 60% of his company’s business comes from referrals — not ad spend, not lead gen.
“I’m such a believer in relationships. I’m such a believer in LRS because I understand the lifetime value of a relationship… Giving starts receiving. Don’t wait for somebody else to start. You start.”
— Richard Robbins
He drew a distinction I think about often: transactional versus transformational relationships.
“If you look at a relationship as being transformational — one plus one equals five. Think about the LRS. The Lifetime Referral System is about creating transformational relationships. It’s bigger than just selling homes. It’s bigger than a commission check.”
— Richard Robbins
For buyers and homeowners, the practical takeaway: the agent you choose matters most when the market is difficult. In a hot market, almost anyone can get a deal done. In a challenging market, you need someone whose relationships — with you, with other agents, with the community — can create opportunities that wouldn’t otherwise exist.
Small actions, performed with consistency
Richard distilled his whole philosophy into one line:
“Success is a bunch of small actions performed with consistency. I think a lot of people think there’s some big thing you got to do. It’s not. It’s the consistency.”
— Richard Robbins
Whether you’re maintaining a property, managing investments, building a business, or just trying to make a sound real estate decision in a confusing market — the people who come out ahead aren’t the ones who made one brilliant move. They’re the ones who showed up consistently, made prudent decisions, and didn’t let short-term noise derail their long-term plan.
That’s the whole thing, really. Control your overhead. Don’t let lifestyle creep eat your margin. Accept that tough markets require more effort for less return. And invest in relationships, because they compound in ways that money can’t.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Toronto real estate market going to crash?
Based on Richard Robbins’ analysis — and data from agents across Canada — no. Toronto is experiencing a reset after years of investor-driven price spikes, particularly in the condo market where 60-70% of units are investor-owned. However, the fundamental driver of Canadian real estate — a systemic shortage of housing — has not changed. Buyers are on the sidelines waiting for economic certainty, not exiting the market. When clarity returns on trade policy and interest rates, demand is expected to return to a market that still doesn’t have enough supply. As Richard puts it: “It’s not going to last for a long time.”
How do I recession-proof my finances as a homeowner?
Richard Robbins’ framework is straightforward: control your overhead, resist lifestyle creep, and carry as little debt as possible. “Everything you own owns a piece of you,” he says. The goal isn’t to maximize income during good times — it’s to build a financial structure that survives bad times. That means not stretching to the absolute maximum on a mortgage, maintaining reserves, and making spending decisions based on sustainable income rather than peak-market earnings.
Is now a good time to buy a home in the Greater Toronto Area?
Richard believes the next few months could represent one of the best buying windows in years. Interest rates have dropped significantly, inventory is higher than it’s been in some time, and there’s less competition from other buyers. The housing shortage hasn’t resolved, and the largest wealth transfer in Canadian history is actively putting capital into the hands of younger buyers. “If I was a smart buyer, I’d be buying now,” Richard said. “Five or ten years from now, you’re looking back and people are going to think you’re a genius.”
Why is the real estate market doing well in some parts of Canada but not others?
The key difference is volatility exposure. Toronto and Vancouver experience dramatic peaks and valleys — prices can spike 15-20% per year during hot markets, driven heavily by investor activity. The prairies and maritimes experience what Richard calls “rolling hills” — steadier, more moderate growth without the same speculation. When Toronto corrects, the drop feels severe because the climb was so steep. Markets that never overheated don’t have the same distance to fall.
What is the biggest mistake people make during a market downturn?
Freezing completely — making no decisions at all. Uncertainty drives inaction, and inaction has its own cost. For sellers, waiting indefinitely means putting life plans on hold. For buyers, it means missing a window of reduced competition and lower prices. Richard’s advice: accept that “120% effort gets 80% results” in a down market, make prudent decisions, cut unnecessary expenses, and keep executing. “Things aren’t good all the time. And we got to get used to that.”