Last updated: August 2026 · Scoring an episode recorded May 2025
In May 2025 we said good downtown condos were trading around $900 a square foot and that the Bank of Canada would be at 2% by the end of the year. One of those was close and one kept going. Here is the scoreboard, fifteen months later, including the part we got wrong.
This is the first of a series I have wanted to do for a while. Plenty of people in this industry make confident calls and quietly never mention them again. I would rather publish the scorecard, because a track record that only contains the wins is not a track record, it is marketing.
The episode was with Tom Storey, a Toronto agent who covers the condo market closely.
Call One: The Bank of Canada Would Be at 2% by End of 2025
Worth being precise about what was and was not right. The direction was correct: rates came down substantially and then stopped. What the call missed was the floor. The Bank got to 2.25% and has stayed there for six consecutive decisions, which is a longer plateau than the conversation anticipated.
If you renewed a mortgage expecting one more cut before you signed, the difference between 2% and 2.25% is small. The more consequential part is that the cutting cycle stopped. Anyone waiting for rates to keep falling before acting has now waited most of a year.
Call Two: Good Downtown Condos Were Around $900 a Square Foot
One caveat so the comparison is honest: the $900 figure described good downtown owner-occupied buildings with parking included in the calculation, while the $812 figure is a broader city-wide resale average. They are not identical measures. What they show together is a market that kept softening for another year rather than finding a floor in mid-2025.
What Held Up Best
The strongest part of that episode was not a number at all. It was the diagnosis of why.
“They built a product that never had an end user. They had an end renter, but not an end user owner that wanted to live in it.”
— Tom Storey, May 2025
That has aged extremely well. The small investor-oriented units built for a rental math that stopped working are exactly the product still struggling, while family-sized units in good buildings have held up considerably better. If you want one idea from that hour, it is that one.
“The only thing that matters in today’s market is, are you the best priced available? And the comparable that sold three months ago does not matter.” Sellers hated hearing it in 2025. It has been the single most reliable piece of advice since.
The Scorecard
| Call (May 2025) | Outcome (Aug 2026) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| BoC overnight rate at 2% by end of 2025 | 2.25%, held for six consecutive decisions | Close, 25bps short |
| Good downtown condos near $900/sqft | City-wide resale about $812/sqft | Right, and it kept falling |
| Prices could fall further from there | They did | Right |
| Investor-built small units are the problem product | Still the weakest segment | Right |
What I Would Say Now
- The rate cycle has stopped, not reversed. Planning on further cuts is planning on something that has not happened for six decisions.
- Segment matters more than the market. “Toronto condos” is not one thing, and the averages hide a wide gap between investor-built small units and family-sized product.
- Best-priced-available still wins. The comparable from three months ago is still not the market.
- Being 25 basis points off is not the failure mode to worry about. Being confidently wrong about direction is, and that is what a scorecard is for.
Watch the Original Episode
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Toronto condo price per square foot in 2026?
Did the Bank of Canada cut to 2%?
Have condo prices kept falling since 2025?
Why publish the calls you got wrong?
Related Reading
- Toronto Condo Market Analysis
- Buyers Are Losing Their Deposits
- Mortgage Renewals in Canada
- Your Home Is Not Selling. Now What?
If you are trying to work out whether your own unit sits in the part of the market that held up or the part that did not, send me the address. I will tell you what I actually think it is worth today, including when that is not what you were hoping to hear.
Written by Adam Nadler, a licensed salesperson serving Toronto and York Region with RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage. Rate figures are from Bank of Canada announcements; price-per-square-foot figures are from publicly reported resale market data and use different measures across the period compared, as noted in the article. Market data changes; confirm current figures before making a decision. Nothing here is financial advice.