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Vision Real Estate

The Receipts: Toronto Was Called a Collapse. It Was a Correction


Last updated: August 2026 · Scoring an episode recorded June 2025

In June 2025 we ran an episode that compared Toronto to 2008 Phoenix and used the word apocalyptic. Fourteen months on, the specific percentage calls in that conversation were close to right, and the framing around them was not. That combination is worth examining, because it is a pattern I keep finding as I score these.

The episode was with Nima Khadem. To be clear about what follows: he is a sharp operator who was seeing real distress that most people could not see, because much of it was not on MLS. The numbers he gave were good. It is the comparison wrapped around them that did not hold.

Nima Khadem making the case that Toronto was heading for a 2008-style collapse, on the Supply and Demand podcast in June 2025

Call One: This Is 2008 Phoenix

The call
Toronto was heading for a 2008-style collapse, explicitly compared to Phoenix, Arizona rather than to Canada in 2008.
Said, June 2025
Described on the episode as apocalyptic, with the observation that much of the distress was invisible because it was not listed on MLS.
What happened
Toronto condo values fell roughly 13 to 18% from the 2022 peak depending on measure and area. The worst US markets after 2008 fell on the order of 50%.
Verdict
WRONG, and by an order of magnitude in severity. This was a correction, not a collapse.

I am not going to pretend I pushed back hard at the time. The distress he was describing was real, and the fact that it sat outside MLS made it genuinely hard to size. But “correction” and “Phoenix 2008” are not the same claim, and anyone who sold in a panic on that framing did worse than someone who did nothing.

Why the distinction matters practically

A 13 to 18% correction hurts, particularly if you bought at the peak or bought pre-construction. It is survivable for most owners with a stable mortgage. A Phoenix-style collapse is a different financial event entirely, and it justifies different decisions. Getting the magnitude wrong changes what people do.

Call Two: 10 to 15% Declines Where the New Supply Landed

The call
Neighbourhoods with large numbers of brand new condos would see declines of 10 to 15 percent.
Said, June 2025
Given as what he was observing directly in areas absorbing heavy new completions.
What happened
It depends which measure you use, and the gap between them is itself the story. The average GTA condo price fell from roughly $779,000 at the Q1 2022 peak to $680,243 in Q1 2026 (TRREB), about 12.7%. Measured per square foot the fall was steeper: roughly $1,045 at the peak against about $812, or roughly 22%. New-supply-heavy pockets sat at the harder end.
Verdict
RIGHT on the headline measure. A 12.7% average-price decline sits inside the stated 10 to 15% range. Per square foot the market fell about 22%, so the call was, if anything, conservative.

This is the part that deserves credit. A 10 to 15% call made in mid-2025, on a market plenty of people still expected to bounce, landed at about 12.7% on average price. That is a good call, made in public, before the fact.

The two measures are worth separating, because most coverage quotes one and means the other. Average price is what a headline reports, and it fell 12.7%. Price per square foot is what you actually buy, and it fell about 22%. The difference is the mix: far more small investor units changed hands at the peak than do now, which flatters the average on the way down. If you owned a specific unit and did not change its size, the per-square-foot number is the one that describes what happened to you.

Bar chart comparing Toronto's decline from the 2022 peak, about 12.7 percent on average price and about 22.3 percent per square foot, against roughly 55 percent in Phoenix and 60 percent in Las Vegas after 2008

Call Three: The Unsold Inventory Would Carry Into Next Year

The call
The occupancies and unsold inventory of the previous two years would carry over into the following year rather than clearing.
Said, June 2025
Framed as a problem that compounds rather than resolves.
What happened
Correct. 2026 is the peak completion year, with roughly 28,000 units scheduled, and the resulting supply is why GTHA rental vacancy reached a five-year high.
Verdict
RIGHT. The inventory did not clear, it accumulated, exactly as described.

Call Four: 2021 and 2022 Buyers Would Not Recover Their Price

The call
Units purchased at 2021 and 2022 pre-construction pricing would not fetch what was paid for them.
Said, June 2025
Said flatly, with the observation that he had not seen a single such unit come back to its purchase price.
What happened
Still holding. The gap between 2021-22 contract prices and today’s values is the entire reason for the pre-construction closing problem now playing out.
Verdict
RIGHT so far, and it is the call with the most consequences attached.

The Scorecard

Call (June 2025)Outcome (Aug 2026)Verdict
2008 Phoenix-style collapse, apocalyptic13 to 18% correction from peakWrong on magnitude
10 to 15% declines in new-supply areasAbout 12.7% on average price; about 22% per square footRight
Unsold inventory carries into next year2026 is the peak completion year, ~28,000 unitsRight
2021-22 buyers do not recover their priceStill below contract pricesRight so far
The pattern across all three Receipts so far

The measurable calls have been good and the emotional framing has been poor. A 10 to 15% forecast landed. A one-percentage-point rate forecast landed. The words “apocalyptic”, “scary” and “collapse” have aged worst every time. That is a useful thing to know about how to read anyone in this industry, including me.

What I Would Say Now

  • Take the number, discount the adjective. When someone gives you both a percentage and a disaster metaphor, the percentage is usually the researched part.
  • The distress was real, just contained. Pre-construction buyers from 2021-22 are genuinely in trouble. Owners of resale family-sized units largely are not.
  • The invisible-market point was his best one. Assignment distress does not show up on MLS, so public statistics understate it. That remains true today.
  • Panic is not a strategy. Anyone who dumped a sound property on collapse framing in mid-2025 crystallised a loss the market did not require them to take.

Nima Khadem describing unsold condo inventory carrying over rather than clearing

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Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Toronto condo market collapse?
No, it corrected. Resale condo pricing fell roughly 13 to 18% from the 2022 peak depending on measure and neighbourhood, against roughly 50% declines in the worst US markets after 2008.
How far have Toronto condo prices fallen?
It depends on the measure. The average GTA condo price fell from roughly $779,000 at the Q1 2022 peak to $680,243 in Q1 2026, about 12.7%. Per square foot the fall was steeper, from roughly $1,045 to about $812, or roughly 22%. The gap is the change in the mix of units selling.
Was the 10 to 15% call accurate?
Yes, on the headline measure. Average condo price fell about 12.7% from the 2022 peak, inside the forecast 10 to 15% range. Per square foot the decline was about 22%, so the forecast was if anything conservative.
Are 2021-22 pre-construction buyers recovering?
Broadly not yet. Those units are generally still worth less than their contract price, which is the core of the closing problem.

Related Reading

If headlines have you wondering whether to sell something you would otherwise keep, that is exactly the moment to get a straight number rather than a narrative. Send me the address and I will tell you what it is actually worth today.

Adam Nadler
Salesperson, Team Lead at Vision Real Estate
RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage
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Written by Adam Nadler, a licensed salesperson serving Toronto and York Region with RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage. Price figures come from publicly reported resale market data and vary by measure and neighbourhood. Comments from the original June 2025 episode are Nima Khadem’s own and are scored here against subsequent outcomes, not offered as a criticism of his analysis at the time. Nothing here is financial advice.

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