What is the vacancy rate in the GTA?

In rent-stabilized GTHA buildings completed since 2000, vacancy was about 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026, up from roughly 3.6 percent a year earlier and 2.6 percent in early 2024. The broader availability rate, which counts units whose tenants have given notice, reached a record eight percent.

Is this a good time to rent in the GTA?

Renters currently have more choice and more negotiating room than at any point in several years, with incentives such as free months and parking common. Whether that persists depends on how long completions stay elevated.

Will rents rise again later?

That is the open question. The completion wave is finite, and if small landlords keep exiting while new construction slows, the supply that is currently cushioning renters thins out. The argument about landlord exits is about the medium term, not this year.

Investors Are Leaving Canadian Real Estate. Rents Are Falling Anyway

Last updated: August 2026 · Episode recorded July 2025

Small landlords really are leaving Ontario, and GTA rents fell anyway. Vacancy in newer rent-stabilized GTHA buildings reached roughly 5.4% in the first quarter of 2026, up from about 3.6% a year earlier and 2.6% in early 2024, and the broader availability rate hit a record 8%. If you were told that landlords exiting would immediately push rents up, the last year did not go that way, and the reason is worth understanding.

I recorded an episode in July 2025 with Darin Germyn, a REALTOR in Surrey, British Columbia, making the case that as landlords exit, renters end up paying for it. The argument is coherent and I still think the medium-term version has force. But I write these posts to be right rather than consistent, so here is what actually happened.

A note on perspective

Darin works in the Fraser Valley, not the GTA, and the argument he makes is about landlord economics generally rather than any one province. The market data below is specific to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.

5.4%

GTHA vacancy in newer rent-stabilized buildings, Q1 2026, up from 2.6% in Q1 2024

availability rate, a record, counting units whose tenants gave notice

~$2,525

average effective rent across unit types after incentives

Sources: Urbanation GTHA rental data reported Q1 2026; purpose-built rent for the Toronto CMA averaged roughly $1,917. Figures move quarterly; check current data before acting.

Realtor Darin Germyn discussing why real estate investors are leaving the Canadian market, on the Supply and Demand podcast

The Argument I Made, and Why It Made Sense

The episode’s logic runs like this. Renting out property is not charity. If the return does not justify the risk, people stop doing it.

“If there is not profitability in it, it’s not a philanthropic adventure for people… otherwise they don’t participate in the market.”
— Darin Germyn, REALTOR, Surrey BC

And the risks are real: long dispute-resolution timelines, limited ability to screen, and a deposit that does not cover much if a unit is damaged. As Darin put it, half a month of rent will not even replace the carpet in one room.

The conclusion followed naturally. Landlords exit, units leave the rental pool, and renters compete for what is left.

What Actually Happened Instead

Rents fell, and vacancy hit a five-year high

Through early 2026 the GTA rental market moved decisively in the renter’s favour. Vacancy roughly doubled in two years, availability reached a record, and rents declined year over year with incentives like free months becoming common. The prediction did not hold over this period.

Two things explain it, and neither contradicts the original argument as much as it out-scales it.

Selling a condo usually does not delete a rental

When a small landlord sells, the unit generally changes owner rather than leaving the housing stock. Sometimes the buyer is an owner-occupier, but frequently it is another investor, or the unit returns to the rental market under new ownership.

The completion wave arrived all at once

Tens of thousands of pre-construction condos sold between 2020 and 2022 reached completion together, and a large share went straight into the rental market. Purpose-built rental construction also rose about 12% in Q1 2026.

Supply beat attrition, for now

New units arriving simply outnumbered the ones lost to exiting landlords. That is why vacancy rose while landlords were genuinely leaving.

This is the same wave from the pre-construction story

The completions creating a closing crisis for buyers who signed in 2021 are the same completions handing renters the best negotiating position in years. One event, two very different experiences depending on which side of it you are standing.

Bar chart showing the GTHA rental vacancy rate in newer rent-stabilised buildings rising from 2.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 to 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026

What This Means If You Rent

You have negotiating room you did not have in 2023. Incentives are common. Ask for them, and ask on renewal too.
Compare more than you think you need to. A record availability rate means real choice, and landlords with an empty unit are more flexible than ones with a queue.
Timing matters more when the market is soft. Competition varies through the year; a soft market widens the gap between a good month and a bad one.
Run the buy-versus-rent numbers honestly. With rents down and prices off their peak, the comparison is genuinely different from a few years ago, in both directions.

What This Means If You Own a Rental

Less comfortably: you are competing against a lot of newly completed units, several of which come with a month free. Holding a good tenant is worth more than squeezing the last fifty dollars out of a renewal, because the cost of a vacant month at these vacancy rates is not theoretical.

The medium-term question is still open

A completion wave is finite. If small landlords keep exiting and new construction slows once this cohort is absorbed, the supply currently cushioning renters thins out. The episode’s argument may still be right, just on a longer clock than a single year.

Adam Nadler hosting the Supply and Demand podcast episode on investors leaving and what it means for renters

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Frequently Asked Questions

Are rents going down in Toronto in 2026?

Yes, rents fell year over year through early 2026, with average effective rent near $2,525 across unit types after incentives. The main driver is a surge of completed condos entering the rental market together.

What is the GTA vacancy rate?

Roughly 5.4% in newer rent-stabilized GTHA buildings in Q1 2026, up from about 3.6% a year earlier and 2.6% in early 2024. The broader availability rate reached a record 8%.

If landlords are selling, why are rents not rising?

Selling a condo usually transfers ownership rather than removing the unit from the housing stock, and the completion wave added far more units than exits removed. Supply beat attrition over this period.

Is now a good time to rent?

Renters have more choice and more negotiating room than in several years, with incentives common. How long that lasts depends on completions staying elevated.

Will rents rise again?

Possibly. A completion wave is finite, and if landlord exits continue while construction slows, the current cushion thins. The landlord-exit argument is about the medium term rather than this year.