Last updated: August 2026 · Scoring an episode recorded December 2024
In December 2024 the Bank of Canada cut by half a point, more than 80% of economists had expected a quarter, and the mood on our episode was that something was wrong. Twenty months later the scorecard is genuinely interesting: the consensus about where rates would stop was wrong by 75 basis points, the expectation about how much would be cut was exactly right, and the thing everyone was frightened of did not happen.
The episode was with Jeff Mudrick, a mortgage broker I work with regularly. This is the second in the series where I go back and mark my own homework.
Call One: Rates Would Bottom Out Around 3%
This is the one worth sitting with. It was not a fringe view, it was the consensus, and it was off by three quarter-point cuts. Anyone who structured a mortgage decision around “rates will stop near 3%” made that decision on the best available information and still got a materially different world.
The Bank has estimated its neutral rate at roughly 2.25% to 3.25%. Rates did not fall to the middle of that band, they went to the very bottom of it and stopped. That is a meaningfully more stimulative setting than the consensus imagined.
Call Two: About One Percentage Point of Cuts Ahead
There is something instructive in getting one of these right and the other wrong at the same time. The market was good at estimating how much would be cut from where it stood, and poor at estimating where the floor was, because the floor depended on things nobody had priced yet.
Call Three: Rising Unemployment Was the Frightening Part
I want to be fair to that conversation rather than smug in hindsight. In December 2024, a 0.3 point jump alongside an unusually large rate cut genuinely looked like the start of something. It was reasonable to be worried. It just did not play out that way, and an honest scorecard records that.
The episode notes in passing that “Trudeau is still the prime minister”. He announced his resignation the following month. A small reminder of how fast the ground moved in that period, and why anything time-stamped needs a date on it.
The Scorecard
| Call (Dec 2024) | Outcome (Aug 2026) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus: rates land near 3% | 2.25%, held since October 2025 | Wrong, 75bps too high |
| Roughly 1 percentage point of cuts ahead | 3.25% to 2.25%, exactly 1 point | Right |
| 80% of economists expected 25bps, not 50 | The Bank cut 50 | Consensus wrong on the day too |
| Rising unemployment signalled worse ahead | 6.8% eased to 6.4% by July 2026 | Too pessimistic |
What I Take From This
- The consensus was wrong twice in one episode — on the size of that day’s cut, and on where the cycle would end. Treat “every economist expects” as information, not as a floor.
- Direction and magnitude are easier than destination. The one-point call landed. The endpoint call did not.
- Fear is a poor forecasting input. The most emotionally charged part of that conversation is the part that aged worst.
- If you have been waiting for lower rates before acting, the cycle stopped in October 2025 and has not moved for six decisions. That wait now has a real cost attached.
Watch the Original Episode
Frequently Asked Questions
Where did Bank of Canada rates actually bottom out?
Were economists right about where rates would land?
Did unemployment keep rising?
How much did the Bank cut in total?
Related Reading
- Mortgage Renewals in Canada: What the Banks Aren’t Telling You
- Why 35-Year Mortgages Are Creating Forever Loans
- Toronto Condo Market Analysis
- Canada’s Economic Crisis and Toronto Real Estate
If you have been holding off on a move waiting for rates to fall further, it is worth running the actual numbers rather than the vibe. Send me your situation and I will tell you honestly whether waiting is still costing you or saving you.
Written by Adam Nadler, a licensed salesperson serving Toronto and York Region with RE/MAX Your Community Realty, Brokerage. Policy rate figures are from Bank of Canada announcements and unemployment figures from Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey releases. Mortgage commentary in the original episode is from Jeff Mudrick, a licensed mortgage professional. Nothing here is financial advice.